Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-20 14.212115 16.223139 18.382751 20.870292 23.652222 26.663216 30.164390
2025-07-27 11.062722 13.763755 16.884964 20.741668 25.361186 30.697798 37.309492
2025-08-03 9.357715 12.311947 15.890664 20.514199 26.295079 33.247242 42.199699
2025-08-10 8.140657 11.263613 15.209773 20.513123 27.397958 35.971417 47.384291
2025-08-17 7.288555 10.536001 14.791955 20.708235 28.637821 38.806265 52.722999
2025-08-24 6.507233 9.800005 14.264433 20.667187 29.503273 41.140380 57.471023
2025-08-31 5.814361 9.101217 13.701778 20.494083 30.124155 43.120938 61.780810
2025-09-07 5.313568 8.620090 13.385980 20.611786 31.110854 45.596925 66.825966
2025-09-14 5.009881 8.396395 13.409156 21.193295 32.754698 49.023308 73.301736
2025-09-21 4.538966 7.867102 12.929944 20.986322 33.221783 50.784186 77.476450
2025-09-28 3.957222 7.104470 12.030517 20.070182 32.563760 50.865082 79.203088
2025-10-05 3.771079 6.968258 12.090101 20.622657 34.129857 54.241462 85.849171
2025-10-12 3.552239 6.763614 12.033534 21.000418 35.467054 57.368914 92.314725
2025-10-19 3.264982 6.414393 11.713669 20.929953 36.092152 59.442031 97.277703
2025-10-26 2.976609 6.033748 11.307554 20.680301 36.399198 61.014502 101.506129
2025-11-02 2.760478 5.763660 11.067362 20.686313 37.109665 63.230103 106.800159
2025-11-09 2.594405 5.571007 10.945526 20.880390 38.129659 65.962824 112.993769
2025-11-16 2.407951 5.321090 10.701063 20.839908 38.743377 68.054570 118.228427
2025-11-23 2.219715 5.049255 10.394771 20.665218 39.108952 69.742678 122.856082
2025-11-30 2.086841 4.876405 10.258189 20.783900 39.979958 72.285319 128.953676
2025-12-07 2.021960 4.838479 10.373677 21.369672 41.695574 76.296335 137.608535
2025-12-14 1.867878 4.596385 10.075949 21.161183 41.975237 77.879523 142.248776
2025-12-21 1.649281 4.191622 9.426081 20.238249 40.904919 77.095231 142.840302